Oklahoma Storm Watch

  10:30 PM CDT | April 21, 2026 -  We have an active period of weather on the horizon. After dealing with some cooler weather the last couple days, we will see marked jump in warmth starting tomorrow. This will set the stage for increasing instability by Thursday afternoon. Before I begin to offer my thoughts on the setup, let me share the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center valid tomorrow through Sunday. On Thursday, we will see a dryline sharpen over West Central Oklahoma by afternoon. Its maximum eastward push should be near an Enid, to Hinton, to Cache line by late afternoon... before retreating westward again. It will have to be monitored closely for convective initiation between 4:00 and 7:00 PM. A cap will exist, but with very warm temperatures and increasing lift, a supercell or two could develop. Anything that develops would be capable of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds to 70 mph, and a Tornado. Regardless, storm chances will increase over N...

  5:15 PM CDT | April 16, 2026 - I am growing increasingly concerned about a Severe Weather Outbreak tomorrow (April 17, 2026) across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. I have made it quite clear that I believe and have seen weather modification in action with these events. Through aerosol spraying, they can disrupt cumulus cloud development, when they want to reduce storm development or intensity. This was definitely the case on Tuesday. Through targeted frequency pulsing or broad "spraying" via the radar sites, they can amp up the environment through ionization. You typically see the "spraying" within 12-48 hours of an event they want to let rip. I recorded the radar loop since last night from the College of DuPage website below. Take note of the initial 360 degree "spraying" signature from the Wichita, KS site early in the video. Then about halfway or so, you will see about a 45 degree signature from the Frederick, OK site aimed through West Central/Nort...

  11:30 PM CDT | April 13, 2026 -  There have been some trends I have noticed with the model guidance. I do believe that upgrades to an Enhanced Risk for portions of Central Oklahoma are likely for both tomorrow and Wednesday. I have drawn up a couple graphics below to illustrate my thoughts on this... First we have tomorrow's outlook where I believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is likely for portions of Southwest/West Central Oklahoma. Interestingly enough, the greatest eastward push of the dryline will come around midday before winds turn more southerly in response to an approaching disturbance. This disturbance is what will trigger the development of Strong to Severe Storms between 3:00 and 5:00 PM. All hazards will be possible. The Tornado Risk will be maximized in the 5:00 to 9:00 PM period. For total transparency, I have posted the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center below. We shall see if they make similar adjustments to what I have illustrated, in later...

  10:45 AM CDT | April 13, 2026 - There is a marginal risk for severe weather late this afternoon and evening. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to a slight risk for parts of Central Oklahoma in later outlooks, as some of the guidance shows two or three supercells initiating near or just west of OKC between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. If this occurs, Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail, Damaging Winds, and a brief Tornado will be possible. The risk for severe weather will subside by 10:00 PM. Tomorrow, we have a slight risk for severe weather across a good portion of the state. The general consensus is that a dryline will stall near Clinton by late afternoon with scattered severe storms developing along/ahead of it. The environment will be more favorable for rotating storms tomorrow, so I do anticipate most of the 5% risk area below to be upgraded to a 10% in later outlooks, with a broader 5% area surrounding it. The only caveat is if activity in Northwest Texas sends outflow northward,...

  10:50 AM CDT | April 1, 2026 -  Today is going to be an active day across the state. Late this morning, a frontal boundary is currently draped from east of Oklahoma City, to near Norman, to north of Altus. This is the boundary mentioned in last night's discussion that will retreat northwest with heating. I still believe it is on schedule to lift near an Enid to Elk City line by late afternoon. Areas along and southeast of this boundary will have the greatest potential for Tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The latest Nadocast parameters are picking up on this, and these are the Tornado probabilities it now shows through tonight. It paints an ominous picture for West Central Oklahoma. The SPC surprisingly has not increased the official Day 1 Tornado probabilities to 10%, as of the writing of this post. I believe they are already warranted, and it is important that Oklahomans are prepared for the potential for Strong Tornadoes. Otherwise, any Severe Storm will be ca...

 9:45 PM CDT | March 31, 2026 -  It may be April Fools' Day tomorrow, but the Severe Weather risk will be no joke. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an Enhanced Risk for West Central Oklahoma with a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk surrounding it. At this time, the maximum risk levels are 5% for Tornadoes, 30% for Large Hail, and 30% for Damaging Winds. I firmly believe the Tornado Risk will be bumped to 10% in later outlooks. As we step through time, I believe that tonight's frontal boundary will likely stall near an Oklahoma City to Altus line by daybreak. With strong southerly flow ahead of the system, it will retreat to near an Enid to Elk City line by late Wednesday afternoon. The most favorable conditions will reside along and south of the remnant frontal boundary. That is why it will be pivotal where this feature resides by 4:00 or 5:00 PM. I have drawn up my own outlook below to better illustrate my personal thoughts on tomorrow's risk. In the Enhanced Risk are...

  3:10 PM CDT | March 10, 2026 -  The SPC's latest outlook aligns well with the one I posted yesterday evening, which showed an Enhanced Risk for South Central Oklahoma. An active late afternoon and evening is expected across the region. Storms are now forming in the Texas Panhandle, from near and northeast of Amarillo. This activity will become strong to severe as it tracks toward Northwest Oklahoma. Other storms are forming in West Central Texas, where the SPC recently stated a Tornado Watch is likely to be issued soon. Closer to cities such as Lawton, Weatherford, Chickasha, and even western OKC is an area of brewing cumulus clouds... I have summarized the current picture with the following graphic. I am going to be monitoring Southwest Oklahoma closely over the next couple of hours for discrete supercell development. Any storms that get going late this afternoon and evening will pose a risk for all hazards. I will likely be posting mainly on the Facebook page this evening...

 10:00 PM CDT | March 9, 2026 -  I have spent much time analyzing the latest model data and satellite trends. An upper-level low currently over Baja California will rotate into the region by tomorrow evening. Guidance has been consistent in showing a disturbance preceding the main low, providing some lift for showers and a few thunderstorms in Texas. The latest trend has been toward a weaker disturbance which would not be as likely to disrupt the environment in Oklahoma.  In a nutshell, if activity in Texas during the middle part of the day is widespread, it would greatly reduce instability farther north and result in some subsidence (sinking air) - making severe thunderstorms less likely for us during the late afternoon and evening hours. This is what the SPC outlook is leaning toward happening. You can see they have a Slight Risk across much of Oklahoma with an Enhanced Risk in Texas. As I stated earlier, though - the trend has been toward a weaker disturbance and more ...

1:00 PM CST | March 5, 2026 - There is a lot to cover early this afternoon, but let me start with what is expected later today and into tonight. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Western Oklahoma with a Slight Risk extending into Central Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk surrounds it. This aligns well with the outlook I made yesterday morning, which discussed the need for an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk. Clouds are breaking up from south to north as the old frontal boundary retreats and washes out. This will allow for moderate instability to develop along/south of the I-40 and I-44 corridors by mid-afternoon. The favored area for initial storm development will be from the southeast Texas Panhandle/far Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track generally toward the northeast. The most intense storms will be in the 6:00 to 10:00 PM period. Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and perhaps Baseballs will be possible, as well as Damaging Winds and a fe...

11:10 PM CST | March 4, 2026 -  There is a concerning error with at least the 00z run of the hi-res HRRR model. Tomorrow's supercells may be very prolific hail producers with accumulations, particularly in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Southwest Oklahoma. At least this particular model (perhaps others) fails to melt the accumulation of hail it depicts and shows westerly winds behind the dryline on Friday carrying cool temperatures into the I-40 corridor Friday afternoon. This would disrupt the instability and wind convergence along the dryline for thunderstorm development. Hence, the 00z HRRR model does not show any dryline development Friday afternoon due to this error in its handling of Thursday night's hailers. This is NOT likely to happen - it is an error that forecasters and meteorologists hopefully see. Otherwise, they are going to possibly underestimate the thunderstorm development off the dryline Friday afternoon. I have posted the simulated radar and vertically...

  10:10 AM CST | March 4, 2026 - I wanted to touch on the severe weather risks for tomorrow and Friday in more detail. First, I have attached the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday, followed by my own outlook below. They have maintained a Slight Risk for portions of Western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas tomorrow. I personally believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is warranted at this point. There is going to be a window for locally intense supercells capable of Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Strong Tornado. For Friday, there has not been much change since the previous SPC outlook. They have maintained an Enhanced Risk area across Central/Eastern Oklahoma on Friday. I personally believe a westward expansion of the Enhanced Risk is likely in later updates, perhaps starting with the updated outlook at1:30 PM today.  My reasoning has to do with (1) the latest trends with the system, (2) the fact that most model gui...

10:15 PM CST | March 3, 2026 -  Our recurring weather pattern continues... Not a coincidence, one of the same parts of the weather pattern that has brought us active weather in previous cycles is slated to bring more active weather this week. Starting with tonight, there will be a risk for hail across portions of the state. Tomorrow, the risk shifts toward the southeast with the cold front. The risk will be greater across Southeast Oklahoma, where large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible. By Thursday morning, our frontal boundary across Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas begins its retreat northward in response to the approaching system from the west. This will allow for increasing temperatures and dew points across the entire state Thursday afternoon. A capping inversion will exist, but it should weaken enough for isolated to widely scattered severe storms by early evening. I am somewhat concerned about the environment from far Northwest Texas/the e...

5:30 PM CST | November 30, 2025 - Get ready, because I am going to blow your mind on this weather. For those who may be new, I take into account something called the recurring cycle theory. In a nutshell, it holds that a unique weather pattern sets up every fall - connected to the Autumnal Equinox. This weather pattern lasts anywhere from 40-60 days, and then it repeats itself before becoming less discernible in the summer, eventually giving way to yet a new pattern in the fall. Every other cycle tends to mirror each other more closely than back-to-back cycles. There are seasonal differences in the jet stream to take into account as well. Ten days ago, I stated that the cold we are now experiencing fit the pattern which had started cycling again. I also noted that there would be an elevated risk for winter weather as well. I am going to show you the mid-levels of the atmosphere on October 13th compared to November 21st. As you can see, the same two lows were featured but with seasonal...

11:40 AM CDT | November 20, 2025 - First shot of cold air arrives around Thanksgiving... But I have my eyes on early December for a more significant blast of Arctic Air. I will be updating the Facebook page and website as needed. There will be at least some chance for Winter Weather during this period. Stay tuned! #oklahoma #oklahomaweather #okc #oklahomacity #tulsa #winterweather #arcticair #polarvortex

First true system of the new weather pattern will likely impact the region in the Oct 6-11th period. There are signs of the new pattern already with remnants of the old mixed in it. Once we see how this new pattern evolves in the weeks to come, we will have much more insight into our winter. Stay tuned!

10:30 AM CDT | July 13, 2025 - As first discussed on June 23rd, there would be an increasing risk for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico starting the third week of July. This is based on the recurring cycle theory which I discuss often. We are seeing that potential being realized now with the NHC giving a 20% chance for development in the northern Gulf this week. The second graphic is what one of the weather models is depicting by late Wednesday... Stay tuned.