A Look At The Active Pattern On The Way

 10:30 PM CDT | April 21, 2026 - We have an active period of weather on the horizon. After dealing with some cooler weather the last couple days, we will see marked jump in warmth starting tomorrow. This will set the stage for increasing instability by Thursday afternoon. Before I begin to offer my thoughts on the setup, let me share the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center valid tomorrow through Sunday.





On Thursday, we will see a dryline sharpen over West Central Oklahoma by afternoon. Its maximum eastward push should be near an Enid, to Hinton, to Cache line by late afternoon... before retreating westward again. It will have to be monitored closely for convective initiation between 4:00 and 7:00 PM. A cap will exist, but with very warm temperatures and increasing lift, a supercell or two could develop. Anything that develops would be capable of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds to 70 mph, and a Tornado.

Regardless, storm chances will increase over Northern/Northeast Oklahoma by early to mid-evening as a cold front pushes into the state. Damaging Winds and Large Hail will be the primary concerns, but a Tornado is possible as well. I have created a graphic to illustrate my thoughts. The Slight Risk into Central Oklahoma (north of I-40) is to account for the supercell potential as well.


Friday's Severe Weather will likely be confined to eastern portions of the state, as reflected by the SPC's outlook. The risk expands across a larger portion of the state on Saturday and Sunday. I fully anticipate an increase in severe probabilities as we draw closer... The synoptic pattern suggests even a Moderate Risk day could be in the making. I will update the blog and Facebook page as time allows over the next several days. Stay tuned.

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