Late Evening Weather Update On Tues & Wed Severe Risk

 11:30 PM CDT | April 13, 2026 - There have been some trends I have noticed with the model guidance. I do believe that upgrades to an Enhanced Risk for portions of Central Oklahoma are likely for both tomorrow and Wednesday. I have drawn up a couple graphics below to illustrate my thoughts on this...

First we have tomorrow's outlook where I believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is likely for portions of Southwest/West Central Oklahoma. Interestingly enough, the greatest eastward push of the dryline will come around midday before winds turn more southerly in response to an approaching disturbance. This disturbance is what will trigger the development of Strong to Severe Storms between 3:00 and 5:00 PM. All hazards will be possible. The Tornado Risk will be maximized in the 5:00 to 9:00 PM period.

For total transparency, I have posted the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center below. We shall see if they make similar adjustments to what I have illustrated, in later outlooks.


For Wednesday, I believe another Enhanced Risk day is in store for Oklahomans. The greatest risk will likely set up from the Lawton and Duncan areas through cities like Chickasha, El Reno, Kingfisher, Oklahoma City, Shawnee, Guthrie, Chandler, Stillwater, Ponca City, and Tulsa. All hazards will again be possible. The official outlook from the SPC is posted below mine.




Both tomorrow (April 14, 2026) and Wednesday (April 15, 2026), there will be the potential for one or two Strong Tornadoes. I firmly believe this based on the analogs... It is just going to be a favorable pattern. It won't be widespread enough that we would see a Moderate or High Risk issued, as those are based largely on the coverage of Severe Storms. Nonetheless, the most intense storms will be capable of Very Large Hail to the size of Baseballs, Damaging Winds of 70-75 mph, and Tornadoes (potentially Strong). Stay tuned, and I will update the blog and Facebook pages as time allows over the next 48 hours.

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