Concerning Model Error Tonight Which Needs To Be Noted

11:10 PM CST | March 4, 2026 - There is a concerning error with at least the 00z run of the hi-res HRRR model. Tomorrow's supercells may be very prolific hail producers with accumulations, particularly in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Southwest Oklahoma. At least this particular model (perhaps others) fails to melt the accumulation of hail it depicts and shows westerly winds behind the dryline on Friday carrying cool temperatures into the I-40 corridor Friday afternoon. This would disrupt the instability and wind convergence along the dryline for thunderstorm development.

Hence, the 00z HRRR model does not show any dryline development Friday afternoon due to this error in its handling of Thursday night's hailers. This is NOT likely to happen - it is an error that forecasters and meteorologists hopefully see. Otherwise, they are going to possibly underestimate the thunderstorm development off the dryline Friday afternoon.

I have posted the simulated radar and vertically integrated liquid values (useful in showing heavy rain and hail) valid at 6:00 PM Thursday, when it depicts these intense cells underway. Then you can see what it shows temperature-wise at 3:00 PM Friday afternoon because it does not melt the hail accumulation from the day before.


Temperatures at 3:00 PM Friday


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