Tomorrow's Severe Risk Is No April Fools' Joke

 9:45 PM CDT | March 31, 2026 - It may be April Fools' Day tomorrow, but the Severe Weather risk will be no joke. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an Enhanced Risk for West Central Oklahoma with a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk surrounding it. At this time, the maximum risk levels are 5% for Tornadoes, 30% for Large Hail, and 30% for Damaging Winds. I firmly believe the Tornado Risk will be bumped to 10% in later outlooks.


As we step through time, I believe that tonight's frontal boundary will likely stall near an Oklahoma City to Altus line by daybreak. With strong southerly flow ahead of the system, it will retreat to near an Enid to Elk City line by late Wednesday afternoon. The most favorable conditions will reside along and south of the remnant frontal boundary. That is why it will be pivotal where this feature resides by 4:00 or 5:00 PM.

I have drawn up my own outlook below to better illustrate my personal thoughts on tomorrow's risk. In the Enhanced Risk area, I believe Very Large Hail up to the size of Baseballs, Damaging Winds to 75 MPH, and a few Tornadoes (potentially strong) will be possible with the most intense storms. In the Slight Risk area, Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls, Damaging Winds up 70 MPH, and a couple Tornadoes will be possible. In the Marginal Risk, Large Hail and Damaging Winds will be the main hazards.


It will be a day where you will need keep a close eye on the weather. Remember, a watch means that conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather. A warning means that severe weather is imminent or expected shortly - take shelter immediately. Always refer to an official weather source in a life-threatening situation, preferably the National Weather Service or your local trusted meteorologist.

I will be posting updates and pictures on the blog and Facebook page, so be sure to check back.





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