Severe Weather Outlooks For Tomorrow & Friday

 10:10 AM CST | March 4, 2026 - I wanted to touch on the severe weather risks for tomorrow and Friday in more detail. First, I have attached the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday, followed by my own outlook below. They have maintained a Slight Risk for portions of Western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas tomorrow. I personally believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is warranted at this point. There is going to be a window for locally intense supercells capable of Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Strong Tornado.



For Friday, there has not been much change since the previous SPC outlook. They have maintained an Enhanced Risk area across Central/Eastern Oklahoma on Friday. I personally believe a westward expansion of the Enhanced Risk is likely in later updates, perhaps starting with the updated outlook at1:30 PM today. 

My reasoning has to do with (1) the latest trends with the system, (2) the fact that most model guidance tends to mix drylines eastward too quickly, and (3) the added soil moisture/evaporation from the storms expected tomorrow evening. All would suggest that the dryline will likely stall near or perhaps just west of the US 281 corridor by late Friday afternoon or early evening. It will be overtaken by the cold front from north to south after dark. We will see though... Stay tuned.




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