First Consecutive Severe Weather Days This Year

10:15 PM CST | March 3, 2026 - Our recurring weather pattern continues... Not a coincidence, one of the same parts of the weather pattern that has brought us active weather in previous cycles is slated to bring more active weather this week. Starting with tonight, there will be a risk for hail across portions of the state.


Tomorrow, the risk shifts toward the southeast with the cold front. The risk will be greater across Southeast Oklahoma, where large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible.


By Thursday morning, our frontal boundary across Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas begins its retreat northward in response to the approaching system from the west. This will allow for increasing temperatures and dew points across the entire state Thursday afternoon. A capping inversion will exist, but it should weaken enough for isolated to widely scattered severe storms by early evening.

I am somewhat concerned about the environment from far Northwest Texas/the eastern Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma Thursday evening. I highlighted this area in purple on the graphic below. I feel like there could be a locally enhanced risk for supercells capable of Golf Ball to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds to 70 mph, and a few Tornadoes. The window would be primarily between 7:00 and 10:00 PM. Elsewhere, the primary hazards will be Large Hail to the size of Ping Pong Balls and Damaging Winds of 60-65 mph, followed by an isolated Tornado or two.


Our weather-maker begins to slow over the Four Corners by Friday morning, but there is some discrepancy among the models. This has to do with differences in the strength of the secondary piece of energy which will start to round the base of the trough.

This evening's Canadian model valid at 6 PM CST Friday...


This evening's North American Model valid 6 PM CST Friday...

This has ramifications for the dryline location by late Friday afternoon. This is partly why some models depict the dryline pushing as far east as OKC before stalling, while others hang it up as far west as Weatherford. I will also note that if scattered storms (>30% coverage) are indeed realized Thursday evening across Western Oklahoma, the added moisture would help slow the eastward mixing of the dryline as moist air is more dense than dry air. You can see this with the above models respectively with their dew points by 6 PM Friday...



Regardless, a favorable environment for severe weather will exist along and east of the dryline Friday afternoon and evening. The SPC already has an Enhanced Risk for areas near/east of a Ponca City, to El Reno, to Duncan line. A Slight Risk surrounds it and covers a majority of the state. Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls, Damaging Winds of 60-70 mph, and a few Tornadoes will be possible.


Stay weather aware over the next several days. I will be posting periodic updates on here, as well as the Facebook page: https://www.Facebook.com/OklahomaStormWatch. The information I share and discuss is not to be used as a replacement from an official source, preferably the National Weather Service or your local trusted meteorologist. I am simply a weather enthusiast who enjoys tracking and discussing the weather. :)


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