Oklahoma Storm Watch

  10:30 PM CDT | April 21, 2026 -  We have an active period of weather on the horizon. After dealing with some cooler weather the last couple days, we will see marked jump in warmth starting tomorrow. This will set the stage for increasing instability by Thursday afternoon. Before I begin to offer my thoughts on the setup, let me share the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center valid tomorrow through Sunday. On Thursday, we will see a dryline sharpen over West Central Oklahoma by afternoon. Its maximum eastward push should be near an Enid, to Hinton, to Cache line by late afternoon... before retreating westward again. It will have to be monitored closely for convective initiation between 4:00 and 7:00 PM. A cap will exist, but with very warm temperatures and increasing lift, a supercell or two could develop. Anything that develops would be capable of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds to 70 mph, and a Tornado. Regardless, storm chances will increase over N...

  5:15 PM CDT | April 16, 2026 - I am growing increasingly concerned about a Severe Weather Outbreak tomorrow (April 17, 2026) across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas. I have made it quite clear that I believe and have seen weather modification in action with these events. Through aerosol spraying, they can disrupt cumulus cloud development, when they want to reduce storm development or intensity. This was definitely the case on Tuesday. Through targeted frequency pulsing or broad "spraying" via the radar sites, they can amp up the environment through ionization. You typically see the "spraying" within 12-48 hours of an event they want to let rip. I recorded the radar loop since last night from the College of DuPage website below. Take note of the initial 360 degree "spraying" signature from the Wichita, KS site early in the video. Then about halfway or so, you will see about a 45 degree signature from the Frederick, OK site aimed through West Central/Nort...

  11:30 PM CDT | April 13, 2026 -  There have been some trends I have noticed with the model guidance. I do believe that upgrades to an Enhanced Risk for portions of Central Oklahoma are likely for both tomorrow and Wednesday. I have drawn up a couple graphics below to illustrate my thoughts on this... First we have tomorrow's outlook where I believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is likely for portions of Southwest/West Central Oklahoma. Interestingly enough, the greatest eastward push of the dryline will come around midday before winds turn more southerly in response to an approaching disturbance. This disturbance is what will trigger the development of Strong to Severe Storms between 3:00 and 5:00 PM. All hazards will be possible. The Tornado Risk will be maximized in the 5:00 to 9:00 PM period. For total transparency, I have posted the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center below. We shall see if they make similar adjustments to what I have illustrated, in later...

  10:45 AM CDT | April 13, 2026 - There is a marginal risk for severe weather late this afternoon and evening. I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to a slight risk for parts of Central Oklahoma in later outlooks, as some of the guidance shows two or three supercells initiating near or just west of OKC between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. If this occurs, Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail, Damaging Winds, and a brief Tornado will be possible. The risk for severe weather will subside by 10:00 PM. Tomorrow, we have a slight risk for severe weather across a good portion of the state. The general consensus is that a dryline will stall near Clinton by late afternoon with scattered severe storms developing along/ahead of it. The environment will be more favorable for rotating storms tomorrow, so I do anticipate most of the 5% risk area below to be upgraded to a 10% in later outlooks, with a broader 5% area surrounding it. The only caveat is if activity in Northwest Texas sends outflow northward,...

  10:50 AM CDT | April 1, 2026 -  Today is going to be an active day across the state. Late this morning, a frontal boundary is currently draped from east of Oklahoma City, to near Norman, to north of Altus. This is the boundary mentioned in last night's discussion that will retreat northwest with heating. I still believe it is on schedule to lift near an Enid to Elk City line by late afternoon. Areas along and southeast of this boundary will have the greatest potential for Tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The latest Nadocast parameters are picking up on this, and these are the Tornado probabilities it now shows through tonight. It paints an ominous picture for West Central Oklahoma. The SPC surprisingly has not increased the official Day 1 Tornado probabilities to 10%, as of the writing of this post. I believe they are already warranted, and it is important that Oklahomans are prepared for the potential for Strong Tornadoes. Otherwise, any Severe Storm will be ca...