Severe Weather Returns To Oklahoma Tomorrow

 10:00 PM CDT | March 9, 2026 - I have spent much time analyzing the latest model data and satellite trends. An upper-level low currently over Baja California will rotate into the region by tomorrow evening. Guidance has been consistent in showing a disturbance preceding the main low, providing some lift for showers and a few thunderstorms in Texas. The latest trend has been toward a weaker disturbance which would not be as likely to disrupt the environment in Oklahoma. 

In a nutshell, if activity in Texas during the middle part of the day is widespread, it would greatly reduce instability farther north and result in some subsidence (sinking air) - making severe thunderstorms less likely for us during the late afternoon and evening hours. This is what the SPC outlook is leaning toward happening. You can see they have a Slight Risk across much of Oklahoma with an Enhanced Risk in Texas.

As I stated earlier, though - the trend has been toward a weaker disturbance and more instability remaining across Oklahoma during the afternoon and early evening hours. The most favorable environment will be in Texas, but I believe an expansion of the Enhanced Risk could be needed into Southern Oklahoma. I illustrate with my own graphic below.

Most of the state will be quiet until late afternoon, when storm chances will increase in the west. Initially, discrete supercells capable of Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls, Damaging Winds to 65 mph, and an isolated Tornado will be possible through early to mid-evening. Activity will track toward the northeast.

South Central Oklahoma will become the focus after sunset, as a squall line takes shape out of Texas and lifts into the area. Damaging Winds to 70 mph, Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail, and a couple Tornadoes will be possible with this activity. This activity will continue into Eastern Oklahoma overnight, but the overall severe risk will gradually decrease. I will post periodic updates tomorrow here and on the Facebook page. Stay tuned.

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