Intense Supercells Likely This Evening; Model Concerns Tomorrow

1:00 PM CST | March 5, 2026 - There is a lot to cover early this afternoon, but let me start with what is expected later today and into tonight. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Western Oklahoma with a Slight Risk extending into Central Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk surrounds it. This aligns well with the outlook I made yesterday morning, which discussed the need for an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk.

Clouds are breaking up from south to north as the old frontal boundary retreats and washes out. This will allow for moderate instability to develop along/south of the I-40 and I-44 corridors by mid-afternoon. The favored area for initial storm development will be from the southeast Texas Panhandle/far Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track generally toward the northeast. The most intense storms will be in the 6:00 to 10:00 PM period. Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and perhaps Baseballs will be possible, as well as Damaging Winds and a few Tornadoes. The Tornado Risk will increase around sunset as the low-level jet begins to ramp up. A Strong Tornado will be possible, particularly in the 7:00 to 10:00 PM window across Western/Southwest Oklahoma. Activity will merge into clusters with a decreasing severe risk later tonight.

Last night's concern with the model guidance remains today... A few of the high resolution models, including the HRRR which is the primary one for the A.I. generated severe weather guidance, depict hail accumulations tonight that they do not melt away by tomorrow. This evening's storms could very well be prolific hail producers with a couple inches of accumulation - that is quite possible. The issue is that they handle it as if it were snowpack with cool surrounding temperatures. Temperatures will range from the mid-70*Fs to the low-80*F's, but they show the hail areas remaining 10-15*F colder than the surrounding locations through late afternoon. Take a look at this morning's HRRR model run which depicts the temperatures at 6:00 PM Friday. It shows a temperature of 63*F in Elk City and 65*F in Weatherford. This totally jacks up the temperatures, dew points, instability, and even wind fields.


The result is a discombobulated environment which produces no dryline storms tomorrow. The only activity it depicts is associated with the low-level jet over Eastern Oklahoma. The HREF or "Nadocast" model, which is the A.I. based model, has the Tornado parameters centered on Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas. I do not disagree with the idea that there will be a Tornado Risk with those storms; however, the area farther west is being heavily underestimated due to the bad data shown above.


With the most recent update from the SPC, they shifted severe probabilities tomorrow well east of where they were previously. It is my humble opinion that this is based on bad data which the models may not get resolved until tomorrow morning. We will see...



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