Oklahoma Storm Watch

  10:10 AM CST | March 4, 2026 - I wanted to touch on the severe weather risks for tomorrow and Friday in more detail. First, I have attached the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday, followed by my own outlook below. They have maintained a Slight Risk for portions of Western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas tomorrow. I personally believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is warranted at this point. There is going to be a window for locally intense supercells capable of Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Strong Tornado. For Friday, there has not been much change since the previous SPC outlook. They have maintained an Enhanced Risk area across Central/Eastern Oklahoma on Friday. I personally believe a westward expansion of the Enhanced Risk is likely in later updates, perhaps starting with the updated outlook at1:30 PM today.  My reasoning has to do with (1) the latest trends with the system, (2) the fact that most model gui...

10:15 PM CST | March 3, 2026 -  Our recurring weather pattern continues... Not a coincidence, one of the same parts of the weather pattern that has brought us active weather in previous cycles is slated to bring more active weather this week. Starting with tonight, there will be a risk for hail across portions of the state. Tomorrow, the risk shifts toward the southeast with the cold front. The risk will be greater across Southeast Oklahoma, where large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible. By Thursday morning, our frontal boundary across Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas begins its retreat northward in response to the approaching system from the west. This will allow for increasing temperatures and dew points across the entire state Thursday afternoon. A capping inversion will exist, but it should weaken enough for isolated to widely scattered severe storms by early evening. I am somewhat concerned about the environment from far Northwest Texas/the e...

5:30 PM CST | November 30, 2025 - Get ready, because I am going to blow your mind on this weather. For those who may be new, I take into account something called the recurring cycle theory. In a nutshell, it holds that a unique weather pattern sets up every fall - connected to the Autumnal Equinox. This weather pattern lasts anywhere from 40-60 days, and then it repeats itself before becoming less discernible in the summer, eventually giving way to yet a new pattern in the fall. Every other cycle tends to mirror each other more closely than back-to-back cycles. There are seasonal differences in the jet stream to take into account as well. Ten days ago, I stated that the cold we are now experiencing fit the pattern which had started cycling again. I also noted that there would be an elevated risk for winter weather as well. I am going to show you the mid-levels of the atmosphere on October 13th compared to November 21st. As you can see, the same two lows were featured but with seasonal...

11:40 AM CDT | November 20, 2025 - First shot of cold air arrives around Thanksgiving... But I have my eyes on early December for a more significant blast of Arctic Air. I will be updating the Facebook page and website as needed. There will be at least some chance for Winter Weather during this period. Stay tuned! #oklahoma #oklahomaweather #okc #oklahomacity #tulsa #winterweather #arcticair #polarvortex

First true system of the new weather pattern will likely impact the region in the Oct 6-11th period. There are signs of the new pattern already with remnants of the old mixed in it. Once we see how this new pattern evolves in the weeks to come, we will have much more insight into our winter. Stay tuned!

10:30 AM CDT | July 13, 2025 - As first discussed on June 23rd, there would be an increasing risk for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico starting the third week of July. This is based on the recurring cycle theory which I discuss often. We are seeing that potential being realized now with the NHC giving a 20% chance for development in the northern Gulf this week. The second graphic is what one of the weather models is depicting by late Wednesday... Stay tuned.