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Intense Supercells Likely This Evening; Model Concerns Tomorrow

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1:00 PM CST | March 5, 2026 - There is a lot to cover early this afternoon, but let me start with what is expected later today and into tonight. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Western Oklahoma with a Slight Risk extending into Central Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk surrounds it. This aligns well with the outlook I made yesterday morning, which discussed the need for an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk. Clouds are breaking up from south to north as the old frontal boundary retreats and washes out. This will allow for moderate instability to develop along/south of the I-40 and I-44 corridors by mid-afternoon. The favored area for initial storm development will be from the southeast Texas Panhandle/far Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track generally toward the northeast. The most intense storms will be in the 6:00 to 10:00 PM period. Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and perhaps Baseballs will be possible, as well as Damaging Winds and a fe...
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Concerning Model Error Tonight Which Needs To Be Noted

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11:10 PM CST | March 4, 2026 -  There is a concerning error with at least the 00z run of the hi-res HRRR model. Tomorrow's supercells may be very prolific hail producers with accumulations, particularly in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Southwest Oklahoma. At least this particular model (perhaps others) fails to melt the accumulation of hail it depicts and shows westerly winds behind the dryline on Friday carrying cool temperatures into the I-40 corridor Friday afternoon. This would disrupt the instability and wind convergence along the dryline for thunderstorm development. Hence, the 00z HRRR model does not show any dryline development Friday afternoon due to this error in its handling of Thursday night's hailers. This is NOT likely to happen - it is an error that forecasters and meteorologists hopefully see. Otherwise, they are going to possibly underestimate the thunderstorm development off the dryline Friday afternoon. I have posted the simulated radar and vertically...
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Severe Weather Outlooks For Tomorrow & Friday

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  10:10 AM CST | March 4, 2026 - I wanted to touch on the severe weather risks for tomorrow and Friday in more detail. First, I have attached the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday, followed by my own outlook below. They have maintained a Slight Risk for portions of Western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas tomorrow. I personally believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is warranted at this point. There is going to be a window for locally intense supercells capable of Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Strong Tornado. For Friday, there has not been much change since the previous SPC outlook. They have maintained an Enhanced Risk area across Central/Eastern Oklahoma on Friday. I personally believe a westward expansion of the Enhanced Risk is likely in later updates, perhaps starting with the updated outlook at1:30 PM today.  My reasoning has to do with (1) the latest trends with the system, (2) the fact that most model gui...
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First Consecutive Severe Weather Days This Year

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10:15 PM CST | March 3, 2026 -  Our recurring weather pattern continues... Not a coincidence, one of the same parts of the weather pattern that has brought us active weather in previous cycles is slated to bring more active weather this week. Starting with tonight, there will be a risk for hail across portions of the state. Tomorrow, the risk shifts toward the southeast with the cold front. The risk will be greater across Southeast Oklahoma, where large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible. By Thursday morning, our frontal boundary across Southeast Oklahoma and North Texas begins its retreat northward in response to the approaching system from the west. This will allow for increasing temperatures and dew points across the entire state Thursday afternoon. A capping inversion will exist, but it should weaken enough for isolated to widely scattered severe storms by early evening. I am somewhat concerned about the environment from far Northwest Texas/the e...
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Get Ready For Your Mind To Be Blown

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5:30 PM CST | November 30, 2025 - Get ready, because I am going to blow your mind on this weather. For those who may be new, I take into account something called the recurring cycle theory. In a nutshell, it holds that a unique weather pattern sets up every fall - connected to the Autumnal Equinox. This weather pattern lasts anywhere from 40-60 days, and then it repeats itself before becoming less discernible in the summer, eventually giving way to yet a new pattern in the fall. Every other cycle tends to mirror each other more closely than back-to-back cycles. There are seasonal differences in the jet stream to take into account as well. Ten days ago, I stated that the cold we are now experiencing fit the pattern which had started cycling again. I also noted that there would be an elevated risk for winter weather as well. I am going to show you the mid-levels of the atmosphere on October 13th compared to November 21st. As you can see, the same two lows were featured but with seasonal...
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Arctic Air On The Way?

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11:40 AM CDT | November 20, 2025 - First shot of cold air arrives around Thanksgiving... But I have my eyes on early December for a more significant blast of Arctic Air. I will be updating the Facebook page and website as needed. There will be at least some chance for Winter Weather during this period. Stay tuned! #oklahoma #oklahomaweather #okc #oklahomacity #tulsa #winterweather #arcticair #polarvortex
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New Weather Pattern To Bring Changes

First true system of the new weather pattern will likely impact the region in the Oct 6-11th period. There are signs of the new pattern already with remnants of the old mixed in it. Once we see how this new pattern evolves in the weeks to come, we will have much more insight into our winter. Stay tuned!
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