Oklahoma Storm Watch

 9:45 PM CDT | March 31, 2026 -  It may be April Fools' Day tomorrow, but the Severe Weather risk will be no joke. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an Enhanced Risk for West Central Oklahoma with a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk surrounding it. At this time, the maximum risk levels are 5% for Tornadoes, 30% for Large Hail, and 30% for Damaging Winds. I firmly believe the Tornado Risk will be bumped to 10% in later outlooks. As we step through time, I believe that tonight's frontal boundary will likely stall near an Oklahoma City to Altus line by daybreak. With strong southerly flow ahead of the system, it will retreat to near an Enid to Elk City line by late Wednesday afternoon. The most favorable conditions will reside along and south of the remnant frontal boundary. That is why it will be pivotal where this feature resides by 4:00 or 5:00 PM. I have drawn up my own outlook below to better illustrate my personal thoughts on tomorrow's risk. In the Enhanced Risk are...

  3:10 PM CDT | March 10, 2026 -  The SPC's latest outlook aligns well with the one I posted yesterday evening, which showed an Enhanced Risk for South Central Oklahoma. An active late afternoon and evening is expected across the region. Storms are now forming in the Texas Panhandle, from near and northeast of Amarillo. This activity will become strong to severe as it tracks toward Northwest Oklahoma. Other storms are forming in West Central Texas, where the SPC recently stated a Tornado Watch is likely to be issued soon. Closer to cities such as Lawton, Weatherford, Chickasha, and even western OKC is an area of brewing cumulus clouds... I have summarized the current picture with the following graphic. I am going to be monitoring Southwest Oklahoma closely over the next couple of hours for discrete supercell development. Any storms that get going late this afternoon and evening will pose a risk for all hazards. I will likely be posting mainly on the Facebook page this evening...

 10:00 PM CDT | March 9, 2026 -  I have spent much time analyzing the latest model data and satellite trends. An upper-level low currently over Baja California will rotate into the region by tomorrow evening. Guidance has been consistent in showing a disturbance preceding the main low, providing some lift for showers and a few thunderstorms in Texas. The latest trend has been toward a weaker disturbance which would not be as likely to disrupt the environment in Oklahoma.  In a nutshell, if activity in Texas during the middle part of the day is widespread, it would greatly reduce instability farther north and result in some subsidence (sinking air) - making severe thunderstorms less likely for us during the late afternoon and evening hours. This is what the SPC outlook is leaning toward happening. You can see they have a Slight Risk across much of Oklahoma with an Enhanced Risk in Texas. As I stated earlier, though - the trend has been toward a weaker disturbance and more ...

1:00 PM CST | March 5, 2026 - There is a lot to cover early this afternoon, but let me start with what is expected later today and into tonight. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Western Oklahoma with a Slight Risk extending into Central Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk surrounds it. This aligns well with the outlook I made yesterday morning, which discussed the need for an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk. Clouds are breaking up from south to north as the old frontal boundary retreats and washes out. This will allow for moderate instability to develop along/south of the I-40 and I-44 corridors by mid-afternoon. The favored area for initial storm development will be from the southeast Texas Panhandle/far Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track generally toward the northeast. The most intense storms will be in the 6:00 to 10:00 PM period. Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and perhaps Baseballs will be possible, as well as Damaging Winds and a fe...

11:10 PM CST | March 4, 2026 -  There is a concerning error with at least the 00z run of the hi-res HRRR model. Tomorrow's supercells may be very prolific hail producers with accumulations, particularly in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Southwest Oklahoma. At least this particular model (perhaps others) fails to melt the accumulation of hail it depicts and shows westerly winds behind the dryline on Friday carrying cool temperatures into the I-40 corridor Friday afternoon. This would disrupt the instability and wind convergence along the dryline for thunderstorm development. Hence, the 00z HRRR model does not show any dryline development Friday afternoon due to this error in its handling of Thursday night's hailers. This is NOT likely to happen - it is an error that forecasters and meteorologists hopefully see. Otherwise, they are going to possibly underestimate the thunderstorm development off the dryline Friday afternoon. I have posted the simulated radar and vertically...

  10:10 AM CST | March 4, 2026 - I wanted to touch on the severe weather risks for tomorrow and Friday in more detail. First, I have attached the official outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday, followed by my own outlook below. They have maintained a Slight Risk for portions of Western Oklahoma into the Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas tomorrow. I personally believe an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk is warranted at this point. There is going to be a window for locally intense supercells capable of Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Strong Tornado. For Friday, there has not been much change since the previous SPC outlook. They have maintained an Enhanced Risk area across Central/Eastern Oklahoma on Friday. I personally believe a westward expansion of the Enhanced Risk is likely in later updates, perhaps starting with the updated outlook at1:30 PM today.  My reasoning has to do with (1) the latest trends with the system, (2) the fact that most model gui...