Oklahoma Storm Watch

  10:50 AM CDT | April 1, 2026 -  Today is going to be an active day across the state. Late this morning, a frontal boundary is currently draped from east of Oklahoma City, to near Norman, to north of Altus. This is the boundary mentioned in last night's discussion that will retreat northwest with heating. I still believe it is on schedule to lift near an Enid to Elk City line by late afternoon. Areas along and southeast of this boundary will have the greatest potential for Tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong. The latest Nadocast parameters are picking up on this, and these are the Tornado probabilities it now shows through tonight. It paints an ominous picture for West Central Oklahoma. The SPC surprisingly has not increased the official Day 1 Tornado probabilities to 10%, as of the writing of this post. I believe they are already warranted, and it is important that Oklahomans are prepared for the potential for Strong Tornadoes. Otherwise, any Severe Storm will be ca...

 9:45 PM CDT | March 31, 2026 -  It may be April Fools' Day tomorrow, but the Severe Weather risk will be no joke. The Storm Prediction Center currently has an Enhanced Risk for West Central Oklahoma with a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk surrounding it. At this time, the maximum risk levels are 5% for Tornadoes, 30% for Large Hail, and 30% for Damaging Winds. I firmly believe the Tornado Risk will be bumped to 10% in later outlooks. As we step through time, I believe that tonight's frontal boundary will likely stall near an Oklahoma City to Altus line by daybreak. With strong southerly flow ahead of the system, it will retreat to near an Enid to Elk City line by late Wednesday afternoon. The most favorable conditions will reside along and south of the remnant frontal boundary. That is why it will be pivotal where this feature resides by 4:00 or 5:00 PM. I have drawn up my own outlook below to better illustrate my personal thoughts on tomorrow's risk. In the Enhanced Risk are...

  3:10 PM CDT | March 10, 2026 -  The SPC's latest outlook aligns well with the one I posted yesterday evening, which showed an Enhanced Risk for South Central Oklahoma. An active late afternoon and evening is expected across the region. Storms are now forming in the Texas Panhandle, from near and northeast of Amarillo. This activity will become strong to severe as it tracks toward Northwest Oklahoma. Other storms are forming in West Central Texas, where the SPC recently stated a Tornado Watch is likely to be issued soon. Closer to cities such as Lawton, Weatherford, Chickasha, and even western OKC is an area of brewing cumulus clouds... I have summarized the current picture with the following graphic. I am going to be monitoring Southwest Oklahoma closely over the next couple of hours for discrete supercell development. Any storms that get going late this afternoon and evening will pose a risk for all hazards. I will likely be posting mainly on the Facebook page this evening...

 10:00 PM CDT | March 9, 2026 -  I have spent much time analyzing the latest model data and satellite trends. An upper-level low currently over Baja California will rotate into the region by tomorrow evening. Guidance has been consistent in showing a disturbance preceding the main low, providing some lift for showers and a few thunderstorms in Texas. The latest trend has been toward a weaker disturbance which would not be as likely to disrupt the environment in Oklahoma.  In a nutshell, if activity in Texas during the middle part of the day is widespread, it would greatly reduce instability farther north and result in some subsidence (sinking air) - making severe thunderstorms less likely for us during the late afternoon and evening hours. This is what the SPC outlook is leaning toward happening. You can see they have a Slight Risk across much of Oklahoma with an Enhanced Risk in Texas. As I stated earlier, though - the trend has been toward a weaker disturbance and more ...

1:00 PM CST | March 5, 2026 - There is a lot to cover early this afternoon, but let me start with what is expected later today and into tonight. The SPC has an Enhanced Risk for Western Oklahoma with a Slight Risk extending into Central Oklahoma. A Marginal Risk surrounds it. This aligns well with the outlook I made yesterday morning, which discussed the need for an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk. Clouds are breaking up from south to north as the old frontal boundary retreats and washes out. This will allow for moderate instability to develop along/south of the I-40 and I-44 corridors by mid-afternoon. The favored area for initial storm development will be from the southeast Texas Panhandle/far Northwest Texas into Southwest Oklahoma between 4:00 and 6:00 PM. Activity will track generally toward the northeast. The most intense storms will be in the 6:00 to 10:00 PM period. Very Large Hail to the size of Golf Balls and perhaps Baseballs will be possible, as well as Damaging Winds and a fe...

11:10 PM CST | March 4, 2026 -  There is a concerning error with at least the 00z run of the hi-res HRRR model. Tomorrow's supercells may be very prolific hail producers with accumulations, particularly in the southeast Texas Panhandle and far Southwest Oklahoma. At least this particular model (perhaps others) fails to melt the accumulation of hail it depicts and shows westerly winds behind the dryline on Friday carrying cool temperatures into the I-40 corridor Friday afternoon. This would disrupt the instability and wind convergence along the dryline for thunderstorm development. Hence, the 00z HRRR model does not show any dryline development Friday afternoon due to this error in its handling of Thursday night's hailers. This is NOT likely to happen - it is an error that forecasters and meteorologists hopefully see. Otherwise, they are going to possibly underestimate the thunderstorm development off the dryline Friday afternoon. I have posted the simulated radar and vertically...