Oklahoma Storm Watch

8:35 PM CDT -  Severe Weather is a possibility tonight across the heart of the state. Isolated storms formed in Kansas and are pushing into far Northern Oklahoma this evening. More widespread development is expected after 11:00 PM. This activity could produce Quarter to Ping Pong Ball-size Hail and Damaging Winds to 65 mph as it tracks south and southeast. A brief Tornado cannot be ruled out either. Activity will exit the Red River Valley by late Sunday morning.  Storm chances increase again by late Monday afternoon and evening. I anticipate an upgrade to a Slight Risk for Western Oklahoma in later outlooks. Severe Weather remains a possibility on Tuesday with flooding becoming increasingly likely for parts of the state. I will update periodically on the blog and Facebook page. Stay tuned.

8:30 PM CDT -  Tomorrow will be a much-needed lull in rain chances. Flooding occurred in multiple areas with the last round of weather. Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase, however, by late Saturday afternoon and evening. A disturbance will dig into the Southern Plains/Ozarks late in the day. This is what one of the latest models shows at 7:00 PM Saturday. It shows a fairly potent disturbance approaching from the north. A few Strong to Severe Storms will be possible, despite the SPC not having a risk area highlighted. We may see a lull Sunday before the risk for Severe Weather increases on Monday. Monday's setup will be more typical of late spring with the dryline in play. Favored area for Severe Weather will be from the eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Central Oklahoma. The risk shifts farther east on Tuesday with both the dryline and a cold front in play. Favored area will be Central/Eastern Oklahoma. While some Severe Weather risk is likely into next weekend, ...

9:20 PM CDT -  TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 4:00 AM for parts of Western Oklahoma. Two distinct cells are ongoing at this time - one severe storm 35 miles NW of Elk City and another intensifying storm 20 miles NW of Watonga. Motion with any mature cell will generally be toward the southeast. 8:00 PM CDT -  Cells have begun to initiate north of Clinton and north-northwest of Elk City... TORNADO WATCH likely for portions of West Central Oklahoma. 6:55 PM CDT -  This morning's outflow boundary is the focus for evening storm development. An Enhanced Risk for Very Large Hail and Tornadoes exists. Early indications are that initial storms will form to the north of Clinton and Weatherford and track southeast or south-southeast. 12:20 PM CDT -  Severe Weather potential will be focused near the outflow boundary and dryline intersection in West Central Oklahoma late this afternoon and into tonight.

11:15 PM CDT -  Back on May 6th, I mentioned multiple periods we would have increased severe potential. One period mentioned was May 23rd through the 25th. This was based on the recurring cycle theory. Today, we saw some Severe Storms across Southern Oklahoma and Northwest Texas. This activity produced significant hail larger than softballs. Tomorrow, we will see the potential for Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a couple Tornadoes. Severe potential will be locally greater near any outflow boundaries. While isolated Severe Weather is possible during the daytime, I am more concerned with the evening potential. I honestly cannot discount a Strong Tornado, given the expected environment. I anticipate a southwestward expansion of the Slight Risk in future outlooks. On Saturday, there will be a Slight Risk for Severe Weather across portions of Western/Central Oklahoma. Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and a couple Tornadoes will be possible again. The environment wi...

12:30 PM CDT -  A TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 7:00 PM for Central and Eastern Oklahoma. There are several supercells ongoing ahead of the dryline. The most intense cell appears to be headed toward Shawnee, and it is exhibiting some rotation on radar. Additional storms will fire along the dryline between 2:00 and 4:00 PM. This boundary will likely reach El Reno by 5:00 PM. Strong Tornadoes are a possibility, in addition to Very Large Hail and Damaging Winds.

11:50 PM CDT -  Today's Severe Weather event across Oklahoma did not unfold as expected. While it is never good that a forecast busts, it is a positive that this one did. At least a couple Tornadoes did touch down with a cell in Northwest Oklahoma, which originally formed in the Texas Panhandle. Interestingly enough, not a single weather model had forecast ANYTHING to develop in the Texas Panhandle. More on this shortly... Otherwise, the state was largely quiet compared to areas north and south. Multiple Supercells impacted Kansas and Texas. A multi-vortex Tornado was observed to the west of Fort Worth early this evening. In regards to the models, the reason none had any development in the Texas Panhandle is because none had the dryline positioned that far west this afternoon. They all mixed it too far eastward. A few of the hi-res models this evening did not analyze the dew points correctly, and thus, their output is skewed too far to the east. This is an important trend to realiz...

3:25 PM CDT -  A TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 10:00 PM for much of Western/Central Oklahoma. 11:30 AM CDT - The SPC is slowly trending in the direction of what I discussed last night. This is referring to the more focused severe potential for parts of Northwest/Central Oklahoma this evening. You can read last night's blog post for more info. The Storm Prediction Center increased Tornado probabilities to 5% for this region moments ago. You can see what the latest HRRR model shows by 9:00 pm this evening. The hi-res Canadian and European models have been advertising similar solutions as well. I still see Strong Tornado potential.