Oklahoma Storm Watch

3:10 PM CDT | April 30, 2025 -  The break in Severe Weather will be short-lived after this evening. A fast-moving disturbance will kick off convection late in the day tomorrow in the High Plains. I would anticipate an extension of the Marginal Risk through the Oklahoma Panhandle. This activity will track east-southeast with an attendant risk for Large Hail and Strong/Damaging winds. Additional storms will develop in Southern Oklahoma, near the warm front, after midnight. Main hazard will be Quarter to Golf Ball-size Hail, followed by Damaging Winds to 65 mph. A brief Tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The risk will continue into Friday morning as activity shifts east and southeast.

  5:40 PM CDT | April 29, 2025 -  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect until 9:00 PM from Central Oklahoma into West Texas. Supercells are ongoing in Northwest Texas right now, and additional storms are expected. The greatest risk for significant severe will be from Southern Oklahoma through western North Texas into tonight. The primary hazard is Very Large Hail to the size of baseballs, followed by Damaging Winds and Tornadoes. The Tornado Risk is greater than the latest outlook suggests, in my humble opinion. I have outlined where I believe the greatest Tornado Risk will be into tonight. It is offset a bit from the current 5% probabilities from the SPC. In all reality, the probabilities should be up to 10%, but I digress. For tomorrow, there is a Slight Risk of Severe Weather from Eastern/Southern Oklahoma through North Texas and into Arkansas. A cluster is likely to be ongoing at daybreak across Central Oklahoma and North Texas. Isolated Severe Storms are poss...

5:35 PM CDT UPDATE -  First storm of the day has fired in far NW TX, in the vicinity of earlier radar pulsing. It is tracking northeast. 4:15 PM CDT UPDATE -  A TORNADO WATCH is in effect until 11:00 PM from Central Oklahoma through Western North Texas. 3:55 PM CDT UPDATE -  Radar pulsing was seen from Dyess AFB Radar Site toward dryline between Childress and Altus. Storm development will be likely in this general area of far SW OK/NW TX. 8:25 AM CDT UPDATE -  The SPC upgraded parts of the state to an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for later today and tonight. Most significant risks will be Large to Very Large Hail and a few Tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong and/or long-tracked.

  7:35 AM CDT | April 28, 2025 -  I made a detailed video in yesterday's post, so I will try my best to just hit the high spots, so to speak, this morning. It is going to be an active weather day, beginning as early as 4:00 or 5:00 PM. The greatest risk for significant supercells appears to be from 7:00 PM to midnight. The SPC currently only has a Slight Risk for portions of Oklahoma. As I stated yesterday, I do believe an Enhanced Risk is already warranted. I have outlined over their outlook, where I believe one is needed. Threats include Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds of 60-75 mph, and a few Tornadoes. A strong and/or long-tracked Tornado will be a possibility this evening. Be sure to check back - I will have a LIVE BLOG up later today. You can also follow on Facebook for updates!

12:30 PM CDT | April 27, 2025 -  This is a video covering what is anticipated over the next several days. A busy stretch of weather will kick off beginning tomorrow. Make sure you have a way to receive the latest watch and warning information. I will be updating the blog and Facebook page as time allows over the next several days. Stay tuned.

2:15 PM CDT | April 21, 2025 -  Accountability is important, especially when you are following a page like this one which makes predictions a month out. Back on March 18th, I stated that there would be multiple opportunities for severe weather, including one after Easter - likely in the April 22nd-24th period. In subsequent posts, I added that we would see some potential right before the holiday and that Easter would be bookended by the potential for severe weather. I have attached two graphics below. The first shows the storm-based warnings from 7:00 AM Friday, April 18th to 7:00 AM Sunday, April 20th (Easter Day). The red polygons are Tornado Warnings; the yellow polygons are Severe Thunderstorm Warnings; and the green polygons are Flood Warnings. Friday's cold front moved through much faster than anticipated which shunted the severe risk farther to the southeast. Nonetheless, severe storms still occurred. Additional severe weather occurred Saturday into very early Sunday morning...

1:30 PM CDT | April 17, 2025 -  As discussed back on March 18th and again on  April 5th , we would see a more active weather pattern return. The main severe risk will be next week, but a risk will exist tomorrow and Saturday. The system will clear the region from west to east Easter morning. For those who have been keeping up, the risks would bookend Easter with the greater risk after the holiday. Let's take it a step at a time. Tomorrow, we will see a cold front push into Northwestern Oklahoma during the afternoon. Activity will likely develop in the 5-7 PM period in Western Oklahoma near the frontal boundary. This activity will shift east and northeast with all hazards possible near/south of the boundary. North of the boundary, large hail will be the primary hazard with a lesser risk for damaging winds. A couple tornadoes are certainly possible. It is a bit concerning that the guidance shows the potential for even a strong one. The tornado risk will be maximized in the 6-10...

2:25 PM CDT - An agitated cumulus field is noted in far Southwest Oklahoma this afternoon. You can see it on the following graphic. Greater instability is now pushing into the state and will continue to increase over the next several hours. 12:30 PM CDT -  The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather across much of the state, surrounded by a Slight Risk and Marginal Risk. There is a risk of Strong Tornadoes. This should not come as a surprise if you have been following the blog. It appears that the dryline will mix as far east as Weatherford or Hydro by 5:00 PM before stalling and retreating westward. I anticipate at least isolated supercells forming near/east of the dryline between 3:00 and 5:00 PM. Once rooted at the surface, rapid intensification will occur in a very unstable and strong shear environment. Very Large Hail to the size of Baseballs, Damaging Winds, and a few Tornadoes will be possible. Make sure you have a way to receive the latest watch and...