Severe Weather Risk Across Oklahoma & North Texas Tonight & Tomorrow

 5:40 PM CDT | April 29, 2025 - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect until 9:00 PM from Central Oklahoma into West Texas. Supercells are ongoing in Northwest Texas right now, and additional storms are expected. The greatest risk for significant severe will be from Southern Oklahoma through western North Texas into tonight. The primary hazard is Very Large Hail to the size of baseballs, followed by Damaging Winds and Tornadoes.

The Tornado Risk is greater than the latest outlook suggests, in my humble opinion. I have outlined where I believe the greatest Tornado Risk will be into tonight. It is offset a bit from the current 5% probabilities from the SPC. In all reality, the probabilities should be up to 10%, but I digress.


For tomorrow, there is a Slight Risk of Severe Weather from Eastern/Southern Oklahoma through North Texas and into Arkansas. A cluster is likely to be ongoing at daybreak across Central Oklahoma and North Texas. Isolated Severe Storms are possible as this cluster continues eastward. Some re-intensification is likely during the midday and afternoon hours.

Additional Severe Storms will fire in the afternoon across the warm sector, both off the dryline in Texas and near residual boundaries from earlier storms. All hazards will be possible, and I would not be surprised to see an upgrade to an Enhanced Risk for parts of the Slight Risk area in later outlooks.

As noted in a previous post, there will be the potential for Severe Weather farther to the north and west as cold temperatures aloft associated with the main system overspread the region. This will maximize instability in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere. Where temperatures can make it to 70*F or higher, enough recovery would occur for a low hail/wind risk. Cold core funnels would be possible as well. This includes parts of Western and Central Oklahoma. Unfortunately, the scope of tomorrow's severe risk may not be fully evident until we see how tonight and tomorrow morning's storms shake out. Stay tuned.


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