Taking A Look At The Weekend Severe Weather Risk

2:30 PM CDT | May 15, 2025 - Severe Weather will be limited to Southeast Oklahoma over the next couple days before expanding across much of the state on Saturday. This is the period where I stated back on the 6th of May that we would see increasing chances for Severe Weather. It will extend two days past where I said, given the reasons stated in the previous post. Below, I have attached the SPC's outlooks for today and tomorrow.


The Storm Prediction Center just updated their Day 3 Outlook for Saturday. They have not gone too aggressive at this point. You can see it below. I went ahead and took the liberty of drawing up my own graphic for Saturday as well. I believe an Enhanced Risk will be issued for areas near the I-40 corridor and points south. A very favorable environment for Severe Weather will exist along and south of the warm front. One uncertainty is the timing of the disturbance, as well as how much of an impact activity in North Texas will have on the environment farther north. Barring significant disruption of our environment by activity to the south... we will see a risk for supercells capable of producing Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and a few Tornadoes.


Sunday will be yet another day of elevated severe potential. The risk for Severe Weather will include practically the entire state with the focus on Central Oklahoma, where I have highlighted an Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather. Both Saturday and Sunday will feature similar hazards with the most intense storms. This includes Very Large Hail to the size of Baseballs, Damaging Winds to 70 mph, and Tornadoes. A few Strong, Long-tracked Tornadoes will be possible.


More Severe Storms are expected Monday and possibly even Tuesday (Eastern Oklahoma). Adjustments can be expected to the weekend and early week forecast as details become clearer. Not everyone will see Severe Weather, but those that do could be dealing with some nasty storms. Follow Oklahoma Storm Watch on Facebook to get even more updates!

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