Friday Evening Update On Tomorrow's Severe Weather Risk

11:10 PM CDT | May 16, 2025 - I wanted to post a late evening update on the risk for Severe Weather tomorrow. I attached a modified version of the SPC Day 2 Outlook for Saturday below to illustrate my personal thoughts. I believe they will expand the current Slight Risk westward (hatched yellow area) in the next update or two. I am keeping an eye on two areas of more focused severe potential. The first being in North Texas and far Southern Oklahoma, where models are consistent in developing widespread Strong to Severe Storms. The primary hazards for this area appears to be Quarter to Ping Pong Ball-size Hail and Damaging Winds of 60-70 mph. A couple Tornadoes will be possible. Primary window appears to be from 2:00 PM to 10:00 PM.

Confidence in the second area to the north is lower, but there is a conditional risk for Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Strong Tornado. The primary window appears to be from 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM. Some adjustments can be expected over the next 18 hours. Be sure to follow on Facebook to also get the latest updates.


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