2024/04/26 - Late Evening Update On Tomorrow's Outbreak

10:30 PM CDT | April 26, 2024 - The potential for a Significant Severe Weather Outbreak is still apparent for tomorrow. I have attached below the most recent SPC Day 2 Outlook valid for Saturday, April 27, 2024. The next Day 1 Outlook will not be issued until 1:00 AM. Following this, I have posted my own personal (non-official) thoughts on what could unfold over the next 24-30 hours.


It appears likely that convection will develop during the 4-6 AM period in western North Texas. This activity will lift into Southwest Oklahoma around daybreak. This activity will initially pose a risk for large hail (quarter to golf ball-size). Later Saturday morning, the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes will increase.


As we approach midday, I believe at least a few surface-based storms are likely to be ongoing with all hazards possible. This threat will continue to increase through the afternoon hours as additional storms develop near the dryline and where the atmosphere recovers in the wake of the morning activity. The potential for Very Large Hail, up to the size of Softballs; Damaging Winds of 60-75 mph; and Tornadoes, a few of which could be intense, will exist.


The threat will shift eastward during the late afternoon and evening hours as a result of storm mergers and outflow. Flash Flooding will also be an increasing concern during this period.


By late evening, the risk will be transitioning to Damaging Winds of 60-80 mph, followed by Large Hail and a few Tornadoes. I anticipate the risk for strong Tornadoes to be much less than earlier.


I will post additional updates tomorrow, so be sure to check back frequently. Saturday will be a day to pay attention to the latest watch and warning information for the entire day and into the overnight hours. Make sure you have more than one way to receive such information. Do not solely rely on cell phone warnings. Review your severe weather safety plans and make sure you know where to go and what to do, should a warning be issued for your area.

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