2024/04/25 - Saturday's Severe Weather Risk Is Concerning

 3:30 PM CDT | April 25, 2024 - I wanted to take a few minutes to address Saturday's Severe Weather Risk. The potential for widespread, significant severe weather is still apparent. I have attached the official Day 3 SPC Outlook first, followed by my own outlook that I drew up this afternoon to illustrate my own personal thoughts.


My own thoughts are similar to those of the Storm Prediction Center's, but I do believe that a Moderate Risk is warranted for portions of Northern/Central Oklahoma into Central Kansas. Even with the potential for morning convection lifting out of Northwest Texas (which could be strong to severe), I still believe the atmosphere will destabilize sufficiently to support a higher end risk of severe weather during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms on Saturday will be capable of producing Quarter to Softball-size Hail, Damaging Winds of 60-80 mph, and several Tornadoes. A couple Strong to Violent Tornadoes are possible in Oklahoma and Kansas.

It is going to be a day where you will need to make sure you have a way to receive the latest watch and warning information. The risk for Severe Weather could begin as early as mid-morning on Saturday, so please keep that in mind. Additional adjustments can be expected to the forecast as we get closer. In life threatening situations, ALWAYS refer to weather updates from official sources, like the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center.

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