2024/04/24 - Enhanced Severe Risk Late Thursday

12:45 PM | April 24, 2024 - There is an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather for Western Oklahoma tomorrow. The risk for potentially significant severe weather is apparent; however, there is a fair degree of uncertainty. A few models show storms failing to develop off the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Other guidance shows about a 30-40% coverage near and east of the dryline. The setup is similar to the last Enhanced Risk day, where only a few cells fired and all failed to become rooted at the surface. That is NOT to say that will be the case again. I am simply saying it is possible, given the similarities. Regardless, the environment will be supportive of Quarter to Baseball-size Hail, Damaging Winds to 75 mph, and a few Tornadoes. The Tornado Risk will be maximized during the evening hours, when a Strong Tornado will be possible with any sustained supercell(s).


Overnight, additional storms will fire from Northwest Texas into West Central Oklahoma. Confidence in this second round developing is higher than the first round. This activity will be more linear in nature and will pose mainly a Large Hail and Damaging Wind Risk. Isolated Tornadoes will be possible with any surface-based storms.

While a risk of Severe Weather will exist across the eastern half of Oklahoma on Friday, my attention is focused more on Saturday when a more significant event is likely to unfold. I will discuss Saturday's setup in more detail soon. Stay tuned!

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