Bow Echo Moving Across State, What To Expect Into Early Monday
4:40 AM CDT - A bow echo is moving across the state early this morning as expected. There have been a few Tornado Warnings and multiple Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with the line. It is running 1-3 hours ahead of schedule from what the models suggested. This increases the likelihood for the environment to recover for a renewed severe threat by early evening. This aligns with what was discussed a couple days ago on the blog, which was an elevated severe risk likely developing somewhere between I-40 and the Red River Valley. The current SPC Day 1 Outlook (seen below) will likely trend toward this with future updates. I anticipate a window for a few supercells capable of Golf Ball-size Hail, Damaging Winds, and a few Tornadoes after 6:00 PM. This is in addition to the severe risk associated with another MCS (meso-convective system) Friday night into Saturday morning. The risk for Severe Weather will continue periodically into early Monday morning with the risk potentially peaking Sunday ...